European Union – Mercosur accord's effects on Brazilian milk powder

Mendes, Krisley

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dc.contributor.author	Mendes, Krisley	-
dc.date.accessioned	2025-09-19T14:38:37Z	-
dc.date.available	2025-09-19T14:38:37Z	-
dc.date.issued	2024-06-19	-
dc.identifier.citation	MENDES, Krisley. European Union – Mercosur accord's effects on Brazilian milk powder. Agribusiness, [S.l.], 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21962. Disponível em: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/agr.21962. Acesso em: 03 jul. 2025.	pt_BR
dc.identifier.uri	http://repositorio.unb.br/handle/10482/52472	-
dc.language.iso	eng	pt_BR
dc.publisher	Wiley	pt_BR
dc.rights	Acesso Aberto	pt_BR
dc.title	European Union – Mercosur accord's effects on Brazilian milk powder	pt_BR
dc.type	Artigo	pt_BR
dc.subject.keyword	União Européia	pt_BR
dc.subject.keyword	Mercosul	pt_BR
dc.subject.keyword	Leite	pt_BR
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21962	pt_BR
dc.relation.publisherversion	https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/agr.21962	pt_BR
dc.description.abstract1	Milk is one of the few agricultural products in which Brazil is not competitive. The domestic market is served by domestic production and imports from Argentina and Uruguay. The Mercosur–European Union Biregional Association Agreement provides for the elimination of tariffs and the harmonization of nontariff measures between the parties. Because the EU is one of the most competitive regions in the world market for powdered milk, this study analyzes the effects of the agreement on the links in this production chain in the Brazilian market. A constant, nested, multisectoral, and vertically integrated elasticity of substitution model is structured incorporating uncertainty in the estimates of Armington elasticities through Monte Carlo simulations, as in Hallren and Opanasets. The model allows projecting the price effect (Armington) and the preference effect in the market shares of Brazil, Mercosur, and the EU on the domestic market. The results, in the most ambitious scenario of the agreement and in the most conservative estimate, show that Brazil would lose 71.7 percentage points in the domestic market. This means reducing Brazilian production by 475 thousand tons of powdered milk. The national agricultural link in this scenario would lose 15% of the current dairy demand. This loss benefits the EU, which would participate in the domestic market with a market share of 58.75%. Mercosur would add 13.41 percentage points to its current share of the Brazilian market [EconLit Citations: F13, F14].	pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcid	https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6800-8450	pt_BR
dc.contributor.affiliation	Universidade de Brasília, Department of Accounting and Actuarial Sciences	pt_BR
dc.description.unidade	Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Gestão de Políticas Públicas (FACE)	pt_BR
dc.description.unidade	Departamento de Ciências Contábeis e Atuariais (FACE CCA)	pt_BR
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